Starmer's Allies Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.