Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
